Risk Register
Ranked by Likelihood × Impact. Pin numbers correspond to the risk heatmap.
Risk heatmap — likelihood × impact, top-right is worst.
Top 5 risks to act on now (revised after builder rebuttal + drawings)
- R1 Budget gap (smaller than first framed). Builder's PEMB-efficient scenario credible; gap may be $300K not $700K. Get 2–3 line-item GC bids.
- R2 Island vent. 8' AFF capture confirmed and reasonable; Korean BBQ grease + make-up air remain real concerns. Mockup before signoff.
- NEW R21: Pier foundation × radiant assembly reconciliation. Time-critical before tubing layout.
- R10 + R11 (LDD-24 interlocks). Slab elevation across spine threshold + 85°F radiant cap.
- R12 ERV / balanced ventilation. Add LDD entry now.
Full register
| Pin | Risk | L | I | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Budget overrun above $1.75M | High | High | Decide: grow budget, cut scope, or phase. See budget. |
| R2 | Island vent under-performs at Korean BBQ load | Med | High | Hood specialist + mockup before slab pour. |
| R3 | Lift mechanical failure (no redundancy plan) | Low | High | Vendor with local service + maintenance contract. |
| R4 | Site prep cost blowout | Low ↓ | Med ↓ | Downgraded: site plan confirms FFE 252.4 / pier foundation / above floodplain (study line 246) / sewer lateral identified / FEMA floodway is east-downhill off footprint. |
| R5 | Gypcrete cost + drying delays schedule | Med | Med | Lock gypcrete vs dry-panel early; bake drying into Gantt. |
| R6 | Trade coordination fails on exposed ceiling | Med | Med | Coordinated RCP before rough-in; weekly photo verification. |
| R7 | Spine wall acoustic separation underperforms | Med | Low | Spec STC target; accept 18' glass door as limit. |
| R8 | No make-up air → backdrafting | Med | Med | Tempered MUA system interlock with island fan. |
| R9 | Manifold accessibility lost in construction | Low | Med | Photograph + label all manifolds before drywall. |
| R10 | Spine threshold flush mandate violated at slab pour | Med | Med | Elevation delta in formwork drawings; self-leveling overlay. |
| R11 | LVP slab temp exceeds 85°F → warranty void | Med | Med | Slab sensors + hard 80°F setpoint; low-temp curve. |
| R12 | Missing ERV/balanced ventilation in tight envelope | High | Low–Med | Add ERV LDD entry now. |
| R13 | Mech room undersized (70 sqft) | Med | Med | Bump to ≥90 sqft. |
| R14 | West gym solar gain exceeds cooling capacity | Med | Med | Manual J + exterior shades or selective Low-E. |
| R15 | South bay dimensions don't close at 60' | High | Low | Reconcile W→E widths before structural drawings. |
| R16 | Korean BBQ classified as Type I commercial | Low | High | Verify with AHJ before vent design completes. |
| R17 | Lightning protection / grounding not specified | Low | Med | Add LDD entry; coordinate with envelope. |
| R18 | HPWH in 70 sqft mech room loses efficiency | Med | Low | Vent ducts or different water heater type. |
| R19 | Construction sequencing not Gantt-documented | Med | Med | GC builds Gantt before mobilization. |
| R20 | No acoustic treatment in gym | High | Low | Acoustic baffles in ceiling hierarchy now. |