Budget Analysis vs $1.75M
Summary
The design as written rolls up to ~$2.13M before site prep at the likely-case midpoint (original waterfall figure). With Peter's flooring LDD-FINISH-01 added (~$70K, missing from the original set), the updated total lands at ~$2.43M.
| Scenario | Total | vs $1.75M |
|---|---|---|
| Low case (favorable bids + everything goes right) | ~$1.85M | +$100K (6%) over |
| Likely case (recommended planning number) | ~$2.43M | +$680K (39%) over |
| High case (bid market + change orders) | ~$2.75M | +$1.0M (57%) over |
Add site prep (builder estimate ~$50K, but with wide uncertainty) and the gap grows by that amount.
Bottom line
The $1.75M strict budget is not achievable with the design as written. Three possible paths:- Grow the budget to $2.0–2.2M plus site prep (most honest reading).
- Cut $300–400K of scope — see "Cost-reduction levers" below.
- Phase the build — defer LOW finish, defer one ILS bay, defer lift to Phase 2.
Budget waterfall
Original waterfall shows $2.13M; add ~$70K for Peter's LDD-24 flooring to reach ~$2.43M total.
Line-item rollup (likely case)
| Category | $K likely | $K range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foundation + slab | 130 | 100–160 | Includes radiant + slab-edge insulation. Site prep excluded. |
| PEMB shell + erect | 220 | 180–260 | 4-bay × 30' frame package, erection included. |
| Exterior envelope (IMP walls) | 230 | 190–280 | 4" PVDF tier; lower tier saves $20–40K. |
| Roof IMP + drainage | 90 | 70–110 | Separate from wall IMP. |
| Spine wall + glazing | 110 | 80–140 | Includes 18'×10' glass garage door. |
| Gym hero wall + clerestory | 70 | 55–95 | ~190 sqft of clerestory. |
| Interior framing + drywall | 95 | 75–125 | Habitable-zone assemblies. |
| HVAC | 175 | 130–225 | Ducted + mini-splits + ERV. |
| Radiant + manifolds | 105 | 85–135 | 3 clusters; gypcrete upstairs. |
| Plumbing + fixtures | 115 | 90–150 | DWV + supply + 7 toilets + 10 sinks. |
| Electrical + EV + solar-ready | 110 | 90–140 | 400A + 2 subpanels. |
| Lighting (soffit + scene) | 70 | 55–95 | Linear LED + Lutron. |
| Doors + stairs + finish | 110 | 85–145 | 30+ doors, 54" stair. |
| Kitchen + cooking + island vent | 95 | 70–130 | Custom integrated system. |
| Workshop + lift + equipment | 95 | 70–135 | Lift dominates. |
| ILS finish + appliances | 85 | 65–115 | Aging-in-place fixtures. |
| Flooring + threshold (LDD-24, new) | 70 | 50–95 | Gym urethane + SPC LVP + polished concrete + flush threshold. |
| Permits + design + GC fee | 130 | 100–170 | ~6–8% GC fee. |
| Subtotal hard + soft | 2,205 | 1,790–2,800 | |
| Contingency 10% | 220 | — | |
| Project total | ~2,425 | ~$2.0M–$2.7M | Before site prep. |
Cost-reduction levers
Easy wins (do these first)
| Move | Savings | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Downgrade IMP exterior finish tier (PVDF → SMP polyester) | $20–40K | Faster fade in 10–15 years |
| Defer LOW finish and fixtures to Phase 2 (rough-in only) | $40–80K | LOW unusable until Phase 2 |
| Defer one ILS bedroom or bathroom finish | $30–60K | Less ILS flexibility |
| Heat-pump water heater instead of distributed tankless | $5–15K | Slightly less flow capacity |
| Vinyl LVP instead of luxury SPC | $10–20K | Floor-feel + warranty considerations |
| Single washer/dryer set instead of two | $5–10K | Less laundry capacity |
| Standard sectional garage doors | $5–10K | Aesthetic compromise on south face |
Easy-win subtotal: $115–235K. Possibly enough to close half the gap.
Harder cuts (more political)
| Move | Savings | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Defer or eliminate lift | $25–55K | LOW access via stair only; not aging-in-place |
| Standard hanging hood instead of LDD-07 integrated vent | $25–60K | Big aesthetic compromise over kitchen |
| Dry climate-panel radiant upstairs instead of gypcrete | $10–25K | Worse acoustics + slower response |
| Eliminate destratification fans | $20–35K | Gym comfort worse in winter |
| Reduce service to 300A from 400A | $4–8K | Tight on long-term capacity |
Hard-cut subtotal: up to $85–186K saved, but each cuts the design's identity.
Recommended path
Reviewer recommendation
- Confirm with the builder/owner: is $1.75M strict, or is there 10–15% headroom?
- Get site prep from civil engineer next week. Without it, every other number floats.
- If $1.75M is strict and site prep is ~$50K: easy wins + defer LOW gets you to ~$2.0M before site prep — still over, but much closer. The remaining $200–250K gap probably means cutting an identity item or accepting a moderate overrun.
- If $1.75M is flexible (call it $2.0M effective + site prep): easy wins on finish tier saves ~$50–100K; keep identity items intact; project lands at ~$2.05–2.15M total. This is the recommended scenario.