# Risk Register — Barnado Compound

> Ranked by Likelihood × Impact. Pin numbers correspond to the [risk heatmap](../../diagrams/13-risk-heatmap.svg).

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| Pin | Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Owner | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **R1** | Budget overrun above $1.75M | **High** | **High** | Owner + Builder | Decide before construction: grow budget to $2.0–2.2M, cut $300–400K of scope, or phase. See [Budget Analysis](budget-analysis.md). |
| **R2** | Island ventilation system under-performs at Korean BBQ load | Med | High | Owner + Hood specialist | Engage hood specialist; build a mockup at the actual capture height with the actual cooktop; test smoke capture before slab pour. |
| **R3** | Lift mechanical failure with no service / redundancy plan | Low | High | Owner | Pick lift vendor with local parts + service contract; document operation procedure; budget for periodic service. |
| **R4** | Site prep cost blowout | ~~Med~~ **Low** | ~~High~~ **Med** | Builder + Civil engineer | **Downgraded:** site plan confirms FFE 252.4 / pier foundation / above-floodplain (study line at 246) / existing sanitary sewer lateral identified / FEMA floodway is east-downhill off footprint. Civil engineer meeting still useful for Delaware code, sewer-lateral verification, and stormwater management permit. |
| **R5** | Gypcrete upstairs adds cost + drying time delays schedule | Med | Med | Mech designer + GC | Decide gypcrete vs dry-panel system early; sequence drying time into Gantt; verify floor framing handles dead load. |
| **R6** | Trade coordination fails on exposed ceiling; rework needed | Med | Med | GC + Owner-rep | Build a coordinated reflected ceiling plan (RCP) before any rough-in; weekly photo verification per LDD-23. |
| **R7** | Spine wall acoustic separation underperforms expectations | Med | Low | Glass spec + Acoustic consultant | Specify STC target on glass + door + flanking; accept that 18' glass door is the limit. Use solid 8' ends as real acoustic mass. |
| **R8** | Make-up air not coordinated with island vent → backdrafting other exhausts | Med | Med | Mech designer | Spec tempered MUA system; interlock with island fan; verify negative-pressure not pulling combustion gases backward. |
| **R9** | Manifold accessibility lost during construction → service regret | Low | Med | GC + Owner-rep | Photograph all manifolds and label loops before any wall finish; per LDD-23 photo verification. |
| **R10** | LDD-24 spine threshold flush mandate violated during slab pour | Med | Med | GC + Concrete sub | Specify elevation delta on formwork drawings; use self-leveling overlay if cure tolerance insufficient; verify pre-pour. |
| **R11** | LVP slab temperature exceeds 85°F manufacturer cap → warranty voided | Med | Med | Mech designer | Slab sensor in each living wing zone + low-temp boiler/heat pump curve with hard 80°F slab setpoint. |
| **R12** | Missing ERV/balanced ventilation in tight envelope → IAQ issues | High | Low–Med | Mech designer | Add an ERV LDD entry; size before HVAC bidding. |
| **R13** | Mechanical room undersized for full equipment list (70 sqft) | Med | Med | Mech designer + Architect | Bump to ≥90 sqft now; cheaper than relocating equipment later. |
| **R14** | West gym solar gain exceeds mini-split cooling capacity | Med | Med | Mech designer | Manual J with real solar load; spec exterior shades or selective Low-E; possibly oversize gym mini-splits. |
| **R15** | South bay dimensions don't close at 60' | High | Low | Architect | Reconcile workshop / hybrid / 3-garage E-W widths before structural shop drawings. |
| **R16** | Korean BBQ classified as Type I commercial appliance by AHJ | Low | High | Builder + Owner | Verify with AHJ before vent design completes; could trigger commercial grease duct + Ansul requirements. |
| **R17** | Lightning protection / metal-building grounding not specified | Low | Med | Electrical engineer | Add to LDD set; coordinate with envelope detailing. |
| **R18** | Heat-pump water heater in 70 sqft mech room loses efficiency | Med | Low | Mech designer | Vent ducts to larger space; or use a different water heater type. |
| **R19** | Construction sequencing not documented as Gantt | Med | Med | GC | Build a Gantt before mobilization; identify the slab pour as the most critical-path moment. |
| **R20** | No acoustic treatment in gym; reverberant from move-in | High | Low | Acoustic consultant | Plan acoustic baffles in gym ceiling; integrate into ceiling hierarchy now. |
| **R21** | **Pier foundation × radiant assembly mismatch (NEW from drawings)** | High | Med | Mech + Structural | Site plan confirms pier foundation; LDD-02 radiant assumes slab-on-grade. Pick slab-on-piles + grade beams, or wood-subfloor + radiant overlay. Lock before tubing layout. |

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## Mitigation priority — top 5 risks to act on now *(revised after builder rebuttal + drawings)*

1. **R1 Budget gap (smaller than originally framed).** Builder's PEMB-efficient scenario is credible; gap may be $300K not $700K. Get 2–3 line-item GC bids before locking.
2. **R2 Island vent.** Mockup before signoff. 8' AFF capture is now confirmed and reasonable; Korean BBQ grease + make-up air are the real concerns.
3. **NEW R21: Pier foundation × radiant assembly reconciliation.** Site plan shows pier foundation; LDD-02 written for slab-on-grade. Pick slab-on-piles or wood-subfloor-radiant-overlay before tubing layout. **Time-critical.**
4. **R10 + R11 (LDD-24 interlocks).** Slab elevation across spine threshold + 85°F radiant surface cap. Time-critical before pour.
5. **R12 ERV/balanced ventilation.** Add LDD entry now; cheap to design, expensive to retrofit.

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## Risks not yet quantified

These are real but I didn't have enough info to pin them on the heatmap:

- Permit timing variability (jurisdiction-specific)
- Material lead times (PEMB shells can be 12–20 weeks; glazing can be 14–22 weeks)
- Weather delays (Mountain-West winter; if foundation isn't in before freeze, lose months)
- Owner decision latency (custom builds slip when owner takes >7 days per RFI)
- General contractor capacity / quality (unsure who's bidding the build)
- Insurance / financing (lender or insurer may have specific requirements)

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## Diagram

![Risk heatmap with numbered pins](../../diagrams/13-risk-heatmap.svg)