Budget Analysis vs $1.75M
Summary โ Round 2 corrections in builder's favor
After two rounds of builder rebuttals, the budget gap is materially smaller. The PEMB-efficient case is now $120K over $1.75M โ fully closeable with easy-wins.
| Scenario | Total before site prep | vs $1.75M |
|---|---|---|
| PEMB-efficient (builder's position) | ~$1.87M | +$120K (7%) over โ closeable |
| Conservative ROM (reviewer's position) | ~$2.23M | +$480K (27%) over |
| Low-case (favorable bids + scope discipline) | ~$1.70โ1.80M | at envelope |
| High-case (Delaware bid market + change orders) | ~$2.40โ2.60M | +$650โ850K (37โ49%) over |
Round 2 corrections (all in builder's favor)
- IMP wall area arithmetic error โ `360 lf ร 22'` = 7,920 sqft, not 14,400 sqft. IMP wall $230K โ $130K. -$100K (largest single revision)
- Kitchen vent reframed R-3 โ strip dedicated MUA, custom plenum, hood-specialist fee. $95K โ $70K. -$25K
- Lift reclassified material lift โ Asgard Press inventory, not passenger. South bay total $95K โ $55K. -$30K
- Counter tri-sectional slab โ three slabs at zone boundaries, no jumbo-slab premium. -$15K
- Spine threshold formwork step-down โ handled at pour, no retrofit. -$1K
Site prep meaningfully de-risked. Site plan shows pier foundation, building above FEMA floodplain (FFE 252.4 vs floodplain study line 246), existing sanitary sewer lateral identified. Builder estimate ~$50K is much more credible now.
Bottom line
The $1.75M strict budget is achievable in the builder's PEMB-efficient scenario only with favorable Delaware bids + held scope discipline. Three honest paths:
- Trust PEMB efficiencies + grow contingency to 15% โ accept ~$1.85โ2.05M effective, treat $1.75M as the stretch target.
- Cut $200โ300K of scope โ see "Cost-reduction levers" below.
- Phase the build โ defer LOW finish, one ILS bay, or lift to Phase 2.
The actionable answer is to get 2โ3 line-item GC bids before locking the conversation.
Builder's PEMB-efficient counter-scenario (re-priced line items)
Peter argues PEMB efficiencies + concentrated finish zones reduce these lines materially:
| Category | Conservative | PEMB-efficient | ฮ | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foundation + slab (SOG w/ piers) | 130 | 110 | -20 | Pier-cascade withdrawn |
| PEMB shell + erect | 220 | 220 | โ | |
| IMP envelope walls | 130 | 115 | -15 | Arithmetic correction (was $230/$215) |
| Roof IMP + drainage | 90 | 80 | -10 | 4' overhang |
| Spine wall + glazing | 110 | 95 | -15 | |
| Gym hero wall + clerestory | 70 | 60 | -10 | |
| Interior framing + drywall | 95 | 65 | -30 | |
| HVAC (incl. boost-mode ERV) | 175 | 150 | -25 | ERV upsized for kitchen MUA |
| Radiant + manifolds | 105 | 90 | -15 | |
| Plumbing + fixtures | 115 | 105 | -10 | |
| Electrical + EV + solar (30kW PV) | 110 | 100 | -10 | |
| Lighting | 70 | 65 | -5 | |
| Doors + stairs + finish | 110 | 90 | -20 | |
| Kitchen + cooking + island vent | 70 | 65 | -5 | Reframed R-3 (was $95/$90) |
| South bay (lift + equipment + workshop) | 55 | 50 | -5 | Material lift (was $95/$90) |
| ILS finish + appliances | 85 | 75 | -10 | |
| Flooring + threshold (LDD-24) | 65 | 55 | -10 | Formwork step-down (was $70/$60) |
| Social counter | 40 | 35 | -5 | Tri-sectional slab |
| Permits + design + GC fee | 130 | 100 | -30 | |
| Subtotal | ~2,030 | ~1,700 | -330 | |
| Contingency 10% | 203 | 170 | -33 | |
| Project total before site prep | ~$2,233K | ~$1,870K | -$363K |
PEMB-efficient is $120K over $1.75M โ fully closeable with easy-wins ($115โ235K available). Conservative is $480K over. Real GC bids resolve which side is right.
Budget waterfall
Original waterfall shows $2.13M; add ~$70K for Peter's LDD-24 flooring to reach ~$2.43M total.
Line-item rollup (likely case)
| Category | $K likely | $K range | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Foundation + slab | 130 | 100โ160 | Includes radiant + slab-edge insulation. Site prep excluded. |
| PEMB shell + erect | 220 | 180โ260 | 4-bay ร 30' frame package, erection included. |
| Exterior envelope (IMP walls) | 230 | 190โ280 | 4" PVDF tier; lower tier saves $20โ40K. |
| Roof IMP + drainage | 90 | 70โ110 | Separate from wall IMP. |
| Spine wall + glazing | 110 | 80โ140 | Includes 18'ร10' glass garage door. |
| Gym hero wall + clerestory | 70 | 55โ95 | ~190 sqft of clerestory. |
| Interior framing + drywall | 95 | 75โ125 | Habitable-zone assemblies. |
| HVAC | 175 | 130โ225 | Ducted + mini-splits + ERV. |
| Radiant + manifolds | 105 | 85โ135 | 3 clusters; gypcrete upstairs. |
| Plumbing + fixtures | 115 | 90โ150 | DWV + supply + 7 toilets + 10 sinks. |
| Electrical + EV + solar-ready | 110 | 90โ140 | 400A + 2 subpanels. |
| Lighting (soffit + scene) | 70 | 55โ95 | Linear LED + Lutron. |
| Doors + stairs + finish | 110 | 85โ145 | 30+ doors, 54" stair. |
| Kitchen + cooking + island vent | 95 | 70โ130 | Custom integrated system. |
| Workshop + lift + equipment | 95 | 70โ135 | Lift dominates. |
| ILS finish + appliances | 85 | 65โ115 | Aging-in-place fixtures. |
| Flooring + threshold (LDD-24, new) | 70 | 50โ95 | Gym urethane + SPC LVP + polished concrete + flush threshold. |
| Permits + design + GC fee | 130 | 100โ170 | ~6โ8% GC fee. |
| Subtotal hard + soft | 2,205 | 1,790โ2,800 | |
| Contingency 10% | 220 | โ | |
| Project total | ~2,425 | ~$2.0Mโ$2.7M | Before site prep. |
Cost-reduction levers
Easy wins (do these first)
| Move | Savings | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Downgrade IMP exterior finish tier (PVDF โ SMP polyester) | $20โ40K | Faster fade in 10โ15 years |
| Defer LOW finish and fixtures to Phase 2 (rough-in only) | $40โ80K | LOW unusable until Phase 2 |
| Defer one ILS bedroom or bathroom finish | $30โ60K | Less ILS flexibility |
| Heat-pump water heater instead of distributed tankless | $5โ15K | Slightly less flow capacity |
| Vinyl LVP instead of luxury SPC | $10โ20K | Floor-feel + warranty considerations |
| Single washer/dryer set instead of two | $5โ10K | Less laundry capacity |
| Standard sectional garage doors | $5โ10K | Aesthetic compromise on south face |
Easy-win subtotal: $115โ235K. Possibly enough to close half the gap.
Harder cuts (more political)
| Move | Savings | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Defer or eliminate lift | $25โ55K | LOW access via stair only; not aging-in-place |
| Standard hanging hood instead of LDD-07 integrated vent | $25โ60K | Big aesthetic compromise over kitchen |
| Dry climate-panel radiant upstairs instead of gypcrete | $10โ25K | Worse acoustics + slower response |
| Eliminate destratification fans | $20โ35K | Gym comfort worse in winter |
| Reduce service to 300A from 400A | $4โ8K | Tight on long-term capacity |
Hard-cut subtotal: up to $85โ186K saved, but each cuts the design's identity.
Recommended path
Reviewer recommendation
- Confirm with the builder/owner: is $1.75M strict, or is there 10โ15% headroom?
- Get site prep from civil engineer next week. Without it, every other number floats.
- If $1.75M is strict and site prep is ~$50K: easy wins + defer LOW gets you to ~$2.0M before site prep โ still over, but much closer. The remaining $200โ250K gap probably means cutting an identity item or accepting a moderate overrun.
- If $1.75M is flexible (call it $2.0M effective + site prep): easy wins on finish tier saves ~$50โ100K; keep identity items intact; project lands at ~$2.05โ2.15M total. This is the recommended scenario.